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允許二孩不等于二胎 雙胞胎家庭不可生二胎

出處：媽媽育兒網 日期：2015-10-30 11:26:01 編輯：Chen

單獨二孩全面放開的消息終于來了，對于一直想生二胎又一直被文件所“卡”住的夫妻，終于等來了“解套”的機會。昨晚，不知道有多少夫妻因此消息而興奮得睡不著覺？不知道又有多少夫妻，開始了“造人”計劃呢？

二胎政策雖然全面放開，但千萬別太著急于“造人”。真正落實這些文件，不僅需要經歷多個流程，且時間上也不會太短。如果‘搶’生，一樣視為違法。

另外，二孩政策并不等于就是二胎，此次全會公報允許一對夫妻生育兩個孩子，也就是說，允許“二孩”而不是“二胎”，例如已經生育雙胞胎的夫妻就不能再次生育。

全面放開二孩 “70后”受益最大

人口專家、北京大學社會學系教授陸杰華認為，全面放開二孩后，從群體上看，“70后”受益最大，“80后”和“90后”生育二孩的占比較大，“50后”和“60后”趕不上末班車。

陸杰華說，全面放開二孩只是第一步，想要達到政策的預期目標，讓大家敢生二孩、實現長期穩(wěn)定適當的生育率，需要考慮如何鼓勵和引導符合政策的育齡婦女在寬松的法律政策環(huán)境下生育，尤其是社會公共政策，從女性職業(yè)、產假、醫(yī)療等方面，都需要相應的公共政策來推動，降低養(yǎng)育成本。

他認為，全面放開二孩后，總和生育率已達到平衡，低生育率趨勢難以改變，尤其是“80后”和“90后”，生育觀念發(fā)生了根本改變，所以需要觀察政策的效果，如果達不到預期目標，可能會有第三步調整，比如調整社會撫養(yǎng)費或者鼓勵三孩等。

每年新增人口300萬至800萬

據多位學者測算，全面放開二孩后，新生兒的出生峰值可能在2017年到來，最樂觀的估計新增人口峰值不會超過800萬。每年帶來的新增人口在300萬至800萬。

短期內，二孩嬰兒潮的到來將拉動相關食品、玩具、母嬰醫(yī)療、兒童服飾、教育等行業(yè)的發(fā)展，可以拉動GDP增長。中長期來看，有望改變中國人口的年齡結構，延緩老齡化速度。當然，長期來看，隨著放開二孩后，新一輪“人口紅利”的形成和中國潛在經濟增速的提高，各類行業(yè)都將最終受益。

那么，問題來了——全面放開二孩后，你會生嗎？/聲音 政策來了，父母們又開始糾結了

“原來老盼有政策，現在盼來了，又有點糾結。這個年紀再生孩子，過去的工作基礎就要基本‘清零’，有很多朋友都勸我算了。”在一家報社工作的趙女士39歲，和老公都有姐姐，家庭經濟條件比較寬裕。但是，由于愛人工作很忙，雙方父母又都年紀較大，趙女士在日常工作和照顧孩子之間，一直在努力尋找平衡。

“雇傭保姆只能解決基本的喂養(yǎng)和看護，真正的教育還要父母自己用心，是任何人都替代不了的。”趙女士認為，一些發(fā)達國家的“超長”產假以及允許父母雙方都休產假的人性化管理制度，有助于全面二孩政策深入實施。

28歲的北京初中教師杜老師和先生雖然都是雙獨，也沒有住房壓力，但是只要一想到生完老二的種種問題，就有點兒糾結。

“希望國家能對二孩給予更多政策支持。”杜老師認為，普通家庭生二胎，可能都會有些心有余而力不足，也不希望為此降低生活質量。

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